Trading Edge Statistical Calculator
Find out how many trades you need to prove your edge!
Calculate Required Sample Size
Your expected probability of winning each trade
The win rate if you had no edge (usually 50%)
How often you're willing to falsely claim you have edge
Probability of detecting edge when it truly exists
Trade Outcome Simulator
Understanding the Math
What is Hypothesis Testing?
When you're trading, you believe you have an "edge" - that your win rate is better than random chance. But how do you prove it's not just luck?
The Two Competing Ideas:
- Null Hypothesis (H₀): You have no edge; your results are just random variation (50% win rate)
- Alternative Hypothesis (H₁): You DO have edge; your true win rate is higher (e.g., 55%)
Key Concepts:
- Significance Level (α): The probability of falsely claiming you have edge when you don't (Type I error)
- Statistical Power (1-β): The probability of correctly detecting edge when it exists
- Sample Size (n): The number of trades needed to distinguish skill from luck